Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem
Scott, James G. ; Berger, James O.
Ann. Statist., Tome 38 (2010) no. 1, p. 2587-2619 / Harvested from Project Euclid
This paper studies the multiplicity-correction effect of standard Bayesian variable-selection priors in linear regression. Our first goal is to clarify when, and how, multiplicity correction happens automatically in Bayesian analysis, and to distinguish this correction from the Bayesian Ockham’s-razor effect. Our second goal is to contrast empirical-Bayes and fully Bayesian approaches to variable selection through examples, theoretical results and simulations. Considerable differences between the two approaches are found. In particular, we prove a theorem that characterizes a surprising aymptotic discrepancy between fully Bayes and empirical Bayes. This discrepancy arises from a different source than the failure to account for hyperparameter uncertainty in the empirical-Bayes estimate. Indeed, even at the extreme, when the empirical-Bayes estimate converges asymptotically to the true variable-inclusion probability, the potential for a serious difference remains.
Publié le : 2010-10-15
Classification:  Bayesian model selection,  empirical Bayes,  multiple testing,  variable selection,  62J05,  62J15
@article{1278861454,
     author = {Scott, James G. and Berger, James O.},
     title = {Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem},
     journal = {Ann. Statist.},
     volume = {38},
     number = {1},
     year = {2010},
     pages = { 2587-2619},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1278861454}
}
Scott, James G.; Berger, James O. Bayes and empirical-Bayes multiplicity adjustment in the variable-selection problem. Ann. Statist., Tome 38 (2010) no. 1, pp.  2587-2619. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1278861454/