Statistical Inference about Markov Chains
Anderson, T. W. ; Goodman, Leo A.
Ann. Math. Statist., Tome 28 (1957) no. 4, p. 89-110 / Harvested from Project Euclid
Maximum likelihood estimates and their asymptotic distribution are obtained for the transition probabilities in a Markov chain of arbitrary order when there are repeated observations of the chain. Likelihood ratio tests and $\chi^2$-tests of the form used in contingency tables are obtained for testing the following hypotheses: (a) that the transition probabilities of a first order chain are constant, (b) that in case the transition probabilities are constant, they are specified numbers, and (c) that the process is a $u$th order Markov chain against the alternative it is $r$th but not $u$th order. In case $u = 0$ and $r = 1$, case (c) results in tests of the null hypothesis that observations at successive time points are statistically independent against the alternate hypothesis that observations are from a first order Markov chain. Tests of several other hypotheses are also considered. The statistical analysis in the case of a single observation of a long chain is also discussed. There is some discussion of the relation between likelihood ratio criteria and $\chi^2$-tests of the form used in contingency tables.
Publié le : 1957-03-14
Classification: 
@article{1177707039,
     author = {Anderson, T. W. and Goodman, Leo A.},
     title = {Statistical Inference about Markov Chains},
     journal = {Ann. Math. Statist.},
     volume = {28},
     number = {4},
     year = {1957},
     pages = { 89-110},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1177707039}
}
Anderson, T. W.; Goodman, Leo A. Statistical Inference about Markov Chains. Ann. Math. Statist., Tome 28 (1957) no. 4, pp.  89-110. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1177707039/