This paper addresses the problem of aggregating a number of expert opinions which have been expressed in some numerical form in order to reflect individual uncertainty vis-a-vis a quantity of interest. The primary focus is consensus belief formation and expert use, although some relevant aspects of group decision making are also reviewed. A taxonomy of solutions is presented which serves as the framework for a survey of recent theoretical developments in the area. A number of current research directions are mentioned and an extensive, current annotated bibliography is included.
Publié le : 1986-02-14
Classification:
Bayesian inference,
consensus,
expert opinions,
group decisions,
pooling,
reconciliation
@article{1177013825,
author = {Genest, Christian and Zidek, James V.},
title = {Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography},
journal = {Statist. Sci.},
volume = {1},
number = {4},
year = {1986},
pages = { 114-135},
language = {en},
url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1177013825}
}
Genest, Christian; Zidek, James V. Combining Probability Distributions: A Critique and an Annotated Bibliography. Statist. Sci., Tome 1 (1986) no. 4, pp. 114-135. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1177013825/