The Asymptotic Evolution of the General Stochastic Epidemic
Reinert, Gesine
Ann. Appl. Probab., Tome 5 (1995) no. 4, p. 1061-1086 / Harvested from Project Euclid
Generalizing Sellke's construction, a general stochastic epidemic with non-Markovian transition behavior is considered. At time $t = 0$, the population of total size $K$ consists of $aK$ individuals that are infected by a certain disease (and infectious); the remaining $bK$ individuals are susceptible with respect to that disease. An initially susceptible individual $i$, when infected (call $A^K_i$ its time of infection), stays infectious for a period of length $r_i$, until it is removed. An initially infected individual $i$ stays infected for a period of length $\hat{r}_i$ until it is removed. Removed individuals can no longer be affected by the disease. A deterministic approximation as (as $K \rightarrow \infty$) to the empirical measure $\xi_K = \frac{1}{K} \sum^{aK}_{i=1} \delta_{(0,\hat{r}_i)} + \frac{1}{K} \sum^{bK}_{i=1} \delta_{(A^K_i, A^K_i + r_i)}$, describing the average path behavior, is established using Stein's method.
Publié le : 1995-11-14
Classification:  General stochastic epidemic,  empirical measures,  Stein's method,  60K30,  60G57,  92D30
@article{1177004606,
     author = {Reinert, Gesine},
     title = {The Asymptotic Evolution of the General Stochastic Epidemic},
     journal = {Ann. Appl. Probab.},
     volume = {5},
     number = {4},
     year = {1995},
     pages = { 1061-1086},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1177004606}
}
Reinert, Gesine. The Asymptotic Evolution of the General Stochastic Epidemic. Ann. Appl. Probab., Tome 5 (1995) no. 4, pp.  1061-1086. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1177004606/