Prediction Theory and Ergodic Spectral Decompositions
Eisenberg, Bennett
Ann. Probab., Tome 4 (1976) no. 6, p. 98-101 / Harvested from Project Euclid
Linear prediction theory for a stationary sequence $X_n$ ordinarily begins with the assumption that the covariance $R(n) = E(X_{m + n} \bar{X}_m) = \int^\pi_{-\pi} e^{i\lambda n} dF(\lambda)$ is known. The best linear predictor of $X_0$ given the past $X_{-1}, X_{-2}, \cdots$ is then the projection $\psi$ of $X_0$ on the span of $X_{-1}, X_{-2}, \cdots$. The prediction error is $E(|X_0 - \psi|^2)$. In practice $R$ is not known but is estimated from the past. If the process is ergodic and the entire past is known this causes no problem since then the estimate $\hat{R}$ of $R$ must equal $R$. But if the process is not ergodic then $\hat{R}$ does not equal $R$. In this paper we consider the relationship between prediction using $\hat{R}$ and $R$. One conclusion is that if the process is Gaussian, it doesn't matter whether $\hat{R}$ or $R$ is used in constructing the best linear predictor. The predictor is the same and the prediction error is the same.
Publié le : 1976-02-14
Classification:  Spectral decomposition,  linear prediction,  stationary sequences,  60G10,  60G15,  60G25
@article{1176996185,
     author = {Eisenberg, Bennett},
     title = {Prediction Theory and Ergodic Spectral Decompositions},
     journal = {Ann. Probab.},
     volume = {4},
     number = {6},
     year = {1976},
     pages = { 98-101},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176996185}
}
Eisenberg, Bennett. Prediction Theory and Ergodic Spectral Decompositions. Ann. Probab., Tome 4 (1976) no. 6, pp.  98-101. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176996185/