Modeling Expert Judgments for Bayesian Updating
Genest, Christian ; Schervish, Mark J.
Ann. Statist., Tome 13 (1985) no. 1, p. 1198-1212 / Harvested from Project Euclid
This paper examines how a Bayesian decision maker would update his/her probability $p$ for the occurrence of an event $A$ in the light of a number of expert opinions expressed as probabilities $q_1, \cdots, q_n$ of $A$. It is seen, among other things, that the linear opinion pool, $\lambda_0p + \sum^n_{i = 1} \lambda_iq_i$, corresponds to an application of Bayes' Theorem when the decision maker has specified only the mean of the marginal distribution for $(q_1, \cdots, q_n)$ and requires his/her formula for the posterior probability of $A$ to satisfy a certain consistency condition. A product formula similar to that of Bordley (1982) is also derived in the case where the experts are deemed to be conditionally independent given $A$ (and given its complement).
Publié le : 1985-09-14
Classification:  Bayesian inference,  consensus,  expert opinions,  linear opinion pool,  logarithmic opinion pool,  62C10,  62A15
@article{1176349664,
     author = {Genest, Christian and Schervish, Mark J.},
     title = {Modeling Expert Judgments for Bayesian Updating},
     journal = {Ann. Statist.},
     volume = {13},
     number = {1},
     year = {1985},
     pages = { 1198-1212},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176349664}
}
Genest, Christian; Schervish, Mark J. Modeling Expert Judgments for Bayesian Updating. Ann. Statist., Tome 13 (1985) no. 1, pp.  1198-1212. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176349664/