Maximum Likelihood Type Estimation for Nearly Nonstationary Autoregressive Time Series
Cox, Dennis D. ; Llatas, Isabel
Ann. Statist., Tome 19 (1991) no. 1, p. 1109-1128 / Harvested from Project Euclid
The nearly nonstationary first-order autoregression is a sequence of autoregressive processes $y_n(k + 1) = \phi_ny_n(k) + \varepsilon(k + 1), 0 \leq k \leq n$, where the $\varepsilon(k)$'s are iid mean zero shocks and the autoregressive coefficient $\phi_n = 1 - \beta/n$ for some $\beta > 0$, so that $\phi_n \rightarrow 1$ as $n \rightarrow \infty$. We consider a class of maximum likelihood type estimators called $M$ estimators, which are not necessarily robust. The estimates are obtained as the solution $\hat{\phi}_n$ of an equation of the form $\sum^{n - 1}_{k = 0}y_n(k)\psi(y_n(k + 1) - \phi y_n(k)) = 0,$ where $\psi$ is a given "score" function. Assuming the shocks have $2 + \delta$ moments and that $\psi$ satisfies some regularity conditions, it is shown that the limiting distribution of $n(\hat{\phi}_n - \phi_n)$ is given by the ratio of two stochastic integrals. For a given shock density $f$ satisfying regularity conditions, it is shown that the optimal $\psi$ function for minimizing asymptotic mean squared error is not the maximum likelihood score in general, but a linear combination of the maximum likelihood score and least squares score. However, numerical calculations under the constraint $y_n(0) = 0$ show that the maximum likelihood score has asymptotic efficiency no lower than 40${\tt\%}$.
Publié le : 1991-09-14
Classification:  Non-Gaussian time series,  autoregressive processes,  maximum likelihood estimation,  asymptotic efficiency,  62M10,  62F12,  62E20,  60F17
@article{1176348240,
     author = {Cox, Dennis D. and Llatas, Isabel},
     title = {Maximum Likelihood Type Estimation for Nearly Nonstationary Autoregressive Time Series},
     journal = {Ann. Statist.},
     volume = {19},
     number = {1},
     year = {1991},
     pages = { 1109-1128},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176348240}
}
Cox, Dennis D.; Llatas, Isabel. Maximum Likelihood Type Estimation for Nearly Nonstationary Autoregressive Time Series. Ann. Statist., Tome 19 (1991) no. 1, pp.  1109-1128. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176348240/