Testing for Threshold Autoregression
Chan, K. S.
Ann. Statist., Tome 18 (1990) no. 1, p. 1886-1894 / Harvested from Project Euclid
We consider the problem of determining whether a threshold autoregressive model fits a stationary time series significantly better than an autoregressive model does. A test statistic $\lambda$ which is equivalent to the (conditional) likelihood ratio test statistic when the noise is normally distributed is proposed. Essentially, $\lambda$ is the normalized reduction in sum of squares due to the piecewise linearity of the autoregressive function. It is shown that, under certain regularity conditions, the asymptotic null distribution of $\lambda$ is given by a functional of a central Gaussian process, i.e., with zero mean function. Contiguous alternative hypotheses are then considered. The asymptotic distribution of $\lambda$ under the contiguous alternative is shown to be given by the same functional of a noncentral Gaussian process. These results are then illustrated with a special case of the test, in which case the asymptotic distribution of $\lambda$ is related to a Brownian bridge.
Publié le : 1990-12-14
Classification:  Asymptotics,  autoregressive model,  Brownian bridge,  contiguity,  ergodicity,  Gaussian process,  least squares,  nuisance parameter present only under the alternative hypothesis,  $\rho$-mixing,  stationarity,  threshold autoregressive model,  62M10,  62J05
@article{1176347886,
     author = {Chan, K. S.},
     title = {Testing for Threshold Autoregression},
     journal = {Ann. Statist.},
     volume = {18},
     number = {1},
     year = {1990},
     pages = { 1886-1894},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176347886}
}
Chan, K. S. Testing for Threshold Autoregression. Ann. Statist., Tome 18 (1990) no. 1, pp.  1886-1894. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176347886/