A population consisting of an unknown number of distinct species is searched by selecting one member at a time. No a priori information is available concerning the probability that an object selected from this population will represent a particular species. Based on the information available after an $n$-stage search it is desired to predict the conditional probability that the next selection will represent a species not represented in the $n$-stage sample. Properties of a class of predictors obtained by extending the search an additional $m$ stages beyond the initial search are exhibited. These predictors have expectation equal to the unconditional probability of discovering a new species at stage $n + 1$, but may be strongly negatively correlated with the conditional probability.
Publié le : 1979-05-14
Classification:
2A99,
Linear unbiased estimation,
prediction,
search probabilities,
species,
Vandermonde determinant,
62F10
@article{1176344684,
author = {Starr, Norman},
title = {Linear Estimation of the Probability of Discovering a New Species},
journal = {Ann. Statist.},
volume = {7},
number = {1},
year = {1979},
pages = { 644-652},
language = {en},
url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176344684}
}
Starr, Norman. Linear Estimation of the Probability of Discovering a New Species. Ann. Statist., Tome 7 (1979) no. 1, pp. 644-652. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176344684/