The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population
Kesten, Harry ; Sidoravicius, Vladas
Ann. Probab., Tome 33 (2005) no. 1, p. 2402-2462 / Harvested from Project Euclid
We consider the following interacting particle system: There is a “gas” of particles, each of which performs a continuous-time simple random walk on ℤd, with jump rate DA. These particles are called A-particles and move independently of each other. They are regarded as individuals who are ignorant of a rumor or are healthy. We assume that we start the system with NA(x,0−) A-particles at x, and that the NA(x,0−),x∈ℤd, are i.i.d., mean-μA Poisson random variables. In addition, there are B-particles which perform continuous-time simple random walks with jump rate DB. We start with a finite number of B-particles in the system at time 0. B-particles are interpreted as individuals who have heard a certain rumor or who are infected. The B-particles move independently of each other. The only interaction is that when a B-particle and an A-particle coincide, the latter instantaneously turns into a B-particle. ¶ We investigate how fast the rumor, or infection, spreads. Specifically, if B̃(t):={x∈ℤd: a B-particle visits x during [0,t]} and B(t)=B̃(t)+[−1/2,1/2]d, then we investigate the asymptotic behavior of B(t). Our principal result states that if DA=DB (so that the A- and B-particles perform the same random walk), then there exist constants 0i<∞ such that almost surely $\mathcal{C}(C_{2}t)\subset B(t)\subset \mathcal{C}(C_{1}t)$ for all large t, where $\mathcal{C}(r)=[-r,r]^{d}$ . In a further paper we shall use the results presented here to prove a full “shape theorem,” saying that t−1B(t) converges almost surely to a nonrandom set B0, with the origin as an interior point, so that the true growth rate for B(t) is linear in t. ¶ If DA≠DB, then we can only prove the upper bound $B(t)\subset \mathcal{C}(C_{1}t)$ eventually.
Publié le : 2005-11-14
Classification:  Spread of infection,  random walks,  interacting particle system,  large deviations for density of Poisson system of random walks,  60K35,  60J15
@article{1133965862,
     author = {Kesten, Harry and Sidoravicius, Vladas},
     title = {The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population},
     journal = {Ann. Probab.},
     volume = {33},
     number = {1},
     year = {2005},
     pages = { 2402-2462},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1133965862}
}
Kesten, Harry; Sidoravicius, Vladas. The spread of a rumor or infection in a moving population. Ann. Probab., Tome 33 (2005) no. 1, pp.  2402-2462. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1133965862/