In recent years Statistics Netherlands has published several stochastic
population forecasts. The degree of uncertainty of the future population is assessed
on the basis of assumptions about the probability distribution of future fertility,
mortality and migration. The assumptions on fertility are based on an analysis of
historic forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR), on time-series models of
observations of the TFR, and on expert knowledge. This latter argument-based
approach refers to the TFR distinguished by birth order. In the most recent Dutch
forecast the 95% forecast interval of the total fertility rate in 2050 is assumed to
range from 1.2 to 2.3 children per woman.