A probabilistic inverse method for volcanic ash dispersion modelling

Zidikheri, Meelis Juma ; Potts, R ; Lucas, C

ANZIAM Journal, Tome 56 (2016), / Harvested from Australian Mathematical Society

Résumé

We present a new inverse modelling approach for integrating satellite detections of volcanic ash with dispersion models. We demonstrate the utility of this approach in estimating the ash column height in the February 2014 eruption of Mount Kelut in Java, Indonesia. We show that the inferred height is consistent with estimates obtained by other remote sensing techniques. This method may be used to obtain estimates of model parameters such as ash column height in cases where no such information is available or is subject to significant uncertainty. References Casadevall, T. J., (Ed) Volcanic ash and aviation safety; proceedings of the First international symposium on Volcanic ash and aviation safety. U.S. Geological Survey, 1994. http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/b2047 Draxler, R. R., and Hess, G. D., An overview of the hysplit4 modelling system for trajectories. Aust. Met. Mag. 47(4):295–308, 1998. http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/papers.php?year=1998 Simpson, J. J., Hufford, G., Pieri, D., and Berg, J., Failures in detecting volcanic ash from a satellite-based technique. Remote Sens. Environ. 72(2):191–217, 2000. doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(99)00103-0 Webster, H. N., Thomson, D. J., Johnson, B. T., Heard, I. P. C., Turnbull, K., Marenco, F., Kristiansen, N. I., Dorsey, J., Minikin, A., Weinzierl, B., Schumann, U., Sparks, R. S. J., Loughlin, S. C., Hort, M. C., Leadbetter, S. J., Devenish, B. J., Manning, A. J., Witham, C. S., Haywood, J. M., and Golding, B. W., Operational prediction of ash concentrations in the distal volcanic cloud from the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 117(D20), 2012. doi:10.1029/2011JD016790 Eckhardt, S., Prata, A. J., Seibert, P., Stebel, K., and Stohl, A., Estimation of the vertical profile of sulfur dioxide injection into the atmosphere by a volcanic eruption using satellite column measurements and inverse transport modeling. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 8(14):3881–3897, 2008. doi:10.5194/acp-8-3881-2008 Kristiansen, N. I., Stohl, A., Prata, A. J., Richter, A., Eckhardt, S., Seibert, P., Hoffmann, A., Ritter, C., Bitar, L., Duck, T. J., and Stebel, K., Remote sensing and inverse transport modeling of the Kasatochi eruption sulfur dioxide cloud. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115(D2), 2010. doi:10.1029/2009JD013286 Stohl, A., Prata, A. J., Eckhardt, S., Clarisse, L., Durant, A. , Henne, S., Kristiansen, N. I., Minikin, A., Schumann, U., Seibert, P., Stebel, K., Thomas, H. E., Thorsteinsson, T., Torseth, K., and Weinzierl, B., Determination of time-and height-resolved volcanic ash emissions and their use for quantitative ash dispersion modeling: the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull eruption. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11(9):4333–4351, 2011. doi:10.5194/acp-11-4333-2011 Ohkawara, N, Multifunctional transport satellite (MTSAT). Technical Report. Meteorological Satellite Center, Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.4.8950&rep=rep1&type=pdf Winker, D. M., Pelon, J. R., and McCormick, M. P, The calipso mission: spaceborne lidar for observation of aerosols and clouds. Proc. SPIE 4893, Lidar Remote Sensing for Industry and Environment Monitoring III, 4893:1–11, 2003. doi:10.1117/12.466539 Prata, A. J., Infrared radiative transfer calculations for volcanic ash clouds Geophys. Res. Lett. 16(11):1293-1296, 1989. doi:10.1029/GL016i011p01293 Pavolonis, M. J., Heidinger, A. K., and Sieglaff, J. Automated retrievals of volcanic ash and dust cloud properties from upwelling infrared measurements. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 118(3):1436-1458, 2013. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50173

Détail

Publié le : 2016-01-01
DOI : https://doi.org/10.21914/anziamj.v56i0.9384