It is shown that the well-known problem of determining the probability of extinction in a simple branching process has a duality relation to the problem of determining that offspring distribution which is in a sense closest to the original one and for which the new process is subcritical (or critical). The latter problem is also considered with respect to various measures of distance.
@article{1176994422,
author = {Feigin, Paul D. and Passy, Ury},
title = {The Geometric Programming Dual to the Extinction Probability Problem in Simple Branching Processes},
journal = {Ann. Probab.},
volume = {9},
number = {6},
year = {1981},
pages = { 498-503},
language = {en},
url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176994422}
}
Feigin, Paul D.; Passy, Ury. The Geometric Programming Dual to the Extinction Probability Problem in Simple Branching Processes. Ann. Probab., Tome 9 (1981) no. 6, pp. 498-503. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176994422/