Extreme Value Theory for Moving Average Processes
Rootzen, Holger
Ann. Probab., Tome 14 (1986) no. 4, p. 612-652 / Harvested from Project Euclid
This paper studies extreme values in infinite moving average processes $X_t = \sum_\lambda c_{\lambda - t} Z_\lambda$ defined from an i.i.d. noise sequence $\{Z_\lambda\}$. In particular this includes the ARMA-processes often used in time series analysis. A fairly complete extremal theory is developed for the cases when the d.f. of the $Z_\lambda$'s has a smooth tail which decreases approximately as $\exp\{- z^p\}$ as $z \rightarrow \infty$, for $0 < p < \infty$, or as a power of $z$. The influence of the averaging on extreme values depends on $p$ and the $c_\lambda$'s in a rather intricate way. For $p = 2$, which includes normal sequences, the correlation function $r_t = \sum_\lambda c_{\lambda - t}c_\lambda/\sum_\lambda c^2_\lambda$ determines extremal behavior while, perhaps more surprisingly, for $p \neq 2$ correlations have little bearing on extremes. Further, the sample paths of $\{X_t\}$ near extreme values asymptotically assume a specific nonrandom form, which again depends on $p$ and $\{c_\lambda\}$ in an interesting way. One use of this latter result is as an informal quantitative check of a fitted moving average (or ARMA) model, by comparing the sample path behavior predicted by the model with the observed sample paths.
Publié le : 1986-04-14
Classification:  Extreme values,  moving averages,  ARMA processes,  sample path,  properties,  distributions of weighted sums,  60F05,  60G17
@article{1176992534,
     author = {Rootzen, Holger},
     title = {Extreme Value Theory for Moving Average Processes},
     journal = {Ann. Probab.},
     volume = {14},
     number = {4},
     year = {1986},
     pages = { 612-652},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176992534}
}
Rootzen, Holger. Extreme Value Theory for Moving Average Processes. Ann. Probab., Tome 14 (1986) no. 4, pp.  612-652. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176992534/