Robust Bayesian Experimental Designs in Normal Linear Models
DasGupta, A. ; Studden, W. J.
Ann. Statist., Tome 19 (1991) no. 1, p. 1244-1256 / Harvested from Project Euclid
We address the problem of finding a design that minimizes the Bayes risk with respect to a fixed prior subject to being robust with respect to misspecification of the prior. Uncertainty in the prior is formulated in terms of having a family of priors instead of one single prior. Two different classes of priors are considered: $\Gamma_1$ is a family of conjugate priors, and a second family of priors $\Gamma_2$ is induced by a metric on the space of nonnegative measures. The family $\Gamma_1$ has earlier been suggested by Leamer and Polasek, while $\Gamma_2$ was considered by DeRobertis and Hartigan and Berger. The setup assumed is that of a canonical normal linear model with independent homoscedastic errors. Optimal robust designs are considered for the problem of estimating the vector of regression coefficients or a linear combination of the regression coefficients and also for testing and set estimation problems. Concrete examples are given for polynomial regression and completely randomized designs. A very surprising finding is that for $\Gamma_2$, the same design is optimal for a variety of different problems with different loss structures. In general, the results for $\Gamma_2$ are significantly more substantive. Our results are applicable to group decision making and reconciliation of opinions among experts with different priors.
Publié le : 1991-09-14
Classification:  Robust Bayesian design,  62F15,  62K05,  62F35
@article{1176348247,
     author = {DasGupta, A. and Studden, W. J.},
     title = {Robust Bayesian Experimental Designs in Normal Linear Models},
     journal = {Ann. Statist.},
     volume = {19},
     number = {1},
     year = {1991},
     pages = { 1244-1256},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1176348247}
}
DasGupta, A.; Studden, W. J. Robust Bayesian Experimental Designs in Normal Linear Models. Ann. Statist., Tome 19 (1991) no. 1, pp.  1244-1256. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1176348247/