Large deviations and ruin probabilities for solutions to stochastic recurrence equations with heavy-tailed innovations
Konstantinides, Dimitrios G. ; Mikosch, Thomas
Ann. Probab., Tome 33 (2005) no. 1, p. 1992-2035 / Harvested from Project Euclid
In this paper we consider the stochastic recurrence equation Yt=AtYt−1+Bt for an i.i.d. sequence of pairs (At,Bt) of nonnegative random variables, where we assume that Bt is regularly varying with index κ>0 and EAtκ<1. We show that the stationary solution (Yt) to this equation has regularly varying finite-dimensional distributions with index κ. This implies that the partial sums Sn=Y1+⋯+Yn of this process are regularly varying. In particular, the relation P(Sn>x)∼c1nP(Y1>x) as x→∞ holds for some constant c1>0. For κ>1, we also study the large deviation probabilities P(Sn−ESn>x), x≥xn, for some sequence xn→∞ whose growth depends on the heaviness of the tail of the distribution of Y1. We show that the relation P(Sn−ESn>x)∼c2nP(Y1>x) holds uniformly for x≥xn and some constant c2>0. Then we apply the large deviation results to derive bounds for the ruin probability ψ(u)=P(sup n≥1((Sn−ESn)−μn)>u) for any μ>0. We show that ψ(u)∼c3uP(Y1>u)μ−1(κ−1)−1 for some constant c3>0. In contrast to the case of i.i.d. regularly varying Yt’s, when the above results hold with c1=c2=c3=1, the constants c1, c2 and c3 are different from 1.
Publié le : 2005-09-14
Classification:  Stochastic recurrence equation,  large deviations,  regular variation,  ruin probability,  60F10,  91B30,  60G70,  60G35
@article{1127395879,
     author = {Konstantinides, Dimitrios G. and Mikosch, Thomas},
     title = {Large deviations and ruin probabilities for solutions to stochastic recurrence equations with heavy-tailed innovations},
     journal = {Ann. Probab.},
     volume = {33},
     number = {1},
     year = {2005},
     pages = { 1992-2035},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1127395879}
}
Konstantinides, Dimitrios G.; Mikosch, Thomas. Large deviations and ruin probabilities for solutions to stochastic recurrence equations with heavy-tailed innovations. Ann. Probab., Tome 33 (2005) no. 1, pp.  1992-2035. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1127395879/