Maximum likelihood estimation of hidden Markov processes
Frydman, Halina ; Lakner, Peter
Ann. Appl. Probab., Tome 13 (2003) no. 1, p. 1296-1312 / Harvested from Project Euclid
We consider the process $dY_{t}=u_{t}\,dt+dW_{t},$ where $u$ is a process not necessarily adapted to $\mathcal{F}^{Y}$ (the filtration generated by the process $Y)$ and $W$ is a Brownian motion. We obtain a general representation for the likelihood ratio of the law of the $Y$ process relative to Brownian measure. This representation involves only one basic filter (expectation of $u$ conditional on observed process $Y$). This generalizes the result of Kailath and Zakai [Ann. Math. Statist. 42 (1971) 130-140] where it is assumed that the process $u$ is adapted to $\mathcal{F}^{Y}.$ In particular, we consider the model in which $u$ is a functional of $Y$ and of a random element $X$ which is independent of the Brownian motion $W.$ For example, $X$ could be a diffusion or a Markov chain. This result can be applied to the estimation of an unknown multidimensional parameter $\theta$ appearing in the dynamics of the process $u$ based on continuous observation of $Y$ on the time interval $[0,T]$. For a specific hidden diffusion financial model in which $u$ is an unobserved mean-reverting diffusion, we give an explicit form for the likelihood function of $\theta.$ For this model we also develop a computationally explicit E--M algorithm for the estimation of $\theta.$ In contrast to the likelihood ratio, the algorithm involves evaluation of a number of filtered integrals in addition to the basic filter.
Publié le : 2003-11-14
Classification:  Hidden diffusion financial models,  likelihood ratio,  maximum likelihood estimation,  E-M algorithm,  filtered integrals,  62M05,  60J60,  60J25
@article{1069786500,
     author = {Frydman, Halina and Lakner, Peter},
     title = {Maximum likelihood estimation of hidden Markov processes},
     journal = {Ann. Appl. Probab.},
     volume = {13},
     number = {1},
     year = {2003},
     pages = { 1296-1312},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1069786500}
}
Frydman, Halina; Lakner, Peter. Maximum likelihood estimation of hidden Markov processes. Ann. Appl. Probab., Tome 13 (2003) no. 1, pp.  1296-1312. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1069786500/