Asymptotics when the number of parameters tends to infinity in the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparisons
Simons, Gordon ; Yao, Yi-Ching
Ann. Statist., Tome 27 (1999) no. 4, p. 1041-1060 / Harvested from Project Euclid
We are concerned here with establishing the consistency and asymptotic normality for the maximum likelihood estimator of a “merit vector” $(u_0,\dots,u_t)$, representing the merits of $t +1$ teams (players, treatments, objects), under the Bradley–Terry model, as $t \to \infty$. This situation contrasts with the well-known Neyman–Scott problem under which the number of parameters grows with $t$ (the amount of sampling), and for which the maximum likelihood estimator fails even to attain consistency. A key feature of our proof is the use of an effective approximation to the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. Specifically, under the Bradley–Terry model, when teams $i$ and $j$ with respective merits $u_i$ and $u_j$ play each other, the probability that team $i$ prevails is assumed to be $u_i/(u_i + u_j)$. Suppose each pair of teams play each other exactly $n$ times for some fixed $n$. The objective is to estimate the merits, $u_i$’s, based on the outcomes of the $nt(t +1)/2$ games. Clearly, the model depends on the $u_i$’s only through their ratios. Under some condition on the growth rate of the largest ratio $u_i/u_j (0 \leq i, j \leq t)$ as $t \to \infty$, the maximum likelihood estimator of $(u_1/u_0,\dots,u_t/u_0)$ is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Some simulation results are provided.
Publié le : 1999-06-14
Classification:  Central limit theorem,  Bradley-Terry model,  consistency,  maximum likelihood estimator,  Fisher information matrix,  60F05,  62J15,  62F12,  62E20
@article{1018031267,
     author = {Simons, Gordon and Yao, Yi-Ching},
     title = {Asymptotics when the number of parameters tends to infinity in
			 the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparisons},
     journal = {Ann. Statist.},
     volume = {27},
     number = {4},
     year = {1999},
     pages = { 1041-1060},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://dml.mathdoc.fr/item/1018031267}
}
Simons, Gordon; Yao, Yi-Ching. Asymptotics when the number of parameters tends to infinity in
			 the Bradley-Terry model for paired comparisons. Ann. Statist., Tome 27 (1999) no. 4, pp.  1041-1060. http://gdmltest.u-ga.fr/item/1018031267/