This paper examines the decision problems associated with
measurement and remediation of environmental hazards, using the example of
indoor radon (a carcinogen) as a case study. Innovative methods developed here
include (1) the use of results from a previous hierarchical statistical
analysis to obtain probability distributions with local variation in both
predictions and uncertainties, (2) graphical methods to display the aggregate
consequences of decisions by individuals and (3) alternative parameterizations
for individual variation in the dollar value of a given reduction in risk. We
perform costbenefit analyses for a variety of decision strategies, as a
function of home types and geography, so that measurement and remediation can
be recommended where it is most effective. We also briefly discuss the
sensitivity of policy recommendations and outcomes to uncertainty in inputs.
For the home radon example, we estimate that if the recommended decision rule
were applied to all houses in the United States, it would be possible to save
the same number of lives as with the current official recommendations for about
40% less cost.